Page 1 of 29
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at
http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/
ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 03 Issue 10
September 2017
Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 38
Population Growth and Crime in Calabar City, Cross River
State, Nigeria.
Folayan, Olagoke Franklin
A Master Thesis in Urban and Regional Planning, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria. 2017
folayanolagokefranklin@gmail.com
Abstract:
This study focuses on population growth and street
crimes in Calabar City. It bridged the gap in socio- physical policies in attempt to fix the pressure from
population growth and upsurge of kidnap and
cultism crime which question safety in the city. The
research is based on Environmental Criminology
Theory. The study employed a decade of population
and crime statistics and selected respondents using
800 copies of questionnaire. The result of tested
hypothesis accepted the research hypothesis at a
significant value of 0.403. This shows that that there
is no significant relationship between population size
and crime. The study identified prevalence of theft,
burglary, armed robbery, and fraud triggered by
cultist in the city. Analyses of variance outcome
revealed that there is a significant variation in
neighbourhoods’ characteristics. Crime is unevenly
spread due to socio-economic inequalities in
neighbourhoods. Crime causation is blamed on
Poverty Index value of 65.70% while other causes of
crime are incompatible landuses. These caused
Calabar City to exhibit a moderate safety level of
63.9%. Crime prevention strategies include reducing
crime opportunities through urban renewal strategy
and physical development control by strengthening
legal instruments. Anti-cultism and anti-kidnap bill
become inevitable as a law to deter potential crime
offenders. The formation of social security bill for
population control and creation of gainful
employment opportunities is also suggested to
reduce poverty the mother crime.
Keywords: Population Growth, Crime
and Safety.
1. Introduction.
Human agglomeration on a geographical
space at a point in time makes up the population size
when census is conducted. The population size of a
country is said to be affected by her population
growth rate based on the influence of dynamic
factors of natural increase and migration
(Gallion & Eisner, 2005; Jhingan, 2007). Population
growth rate is the percentage increase of human
population of a place within a specified period,
usually one year (World Bank, 2001). Population
disparity exists between rural and urban area. This is
due to accelerated man’s achievement in technology
since the 18th century industrial revolution. This
results to economy and growth of cities.
The opportunity that accrues in a city is a
pull factor for the ever-increasing population of
human resource whose needs are insatiable,
especially in developing countries. It is worsened by
the mass rural-urban drift, early marriage and
technological improvement in urban health care
believed to be contributive to high fertility, and low
mortality rate which in turn increases population.
This migration tide is increasing in the 21st century
as people congregates in cities to realised aspiration,
dreams and meet other needs (UN-HABITAT,
2012/2013).
The dark side of rapid population growth was long
alarmed in 1981 as the cause of urban economic and
social problems that risk is wholly unmanageable
(World Bank Report, 2001). High population
pressure is seen as the cause of environmental
problems cities (Jhingan, 2007; Nkwocha, 2014).
The sum of problems in the cities was expressed as
“The City was having growing pains” by Gallon and
Esiner. Little wonder that the Utopians prescribed
the establishment of new towns as a solution to the
social and environmental challenges emanating from
the industrial revolution.
Rapid Population explosion results in high
population pressure which is blamed for congestions,
urban decay, ugliness and fast appearance of slums
which precipitate numerous criminal activities of our
time (Gallion et al). Apart from food insecurity,
population explosion is said to hamper employment
opportunity, impede livelihood of the urbanite and
create vacuum to be filled by idle criminal minds.
The unspeakable is the sustained occurrence of a
poor quality of lives and insecurity from crime (UN- HABITAT, 2012/2013). A large number of Nigeria
cities remain in this jeopardy worsened by poverty.
Nigerian population lives below poverty line of
Page 2 of 29
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at
http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/
ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 03 Issue 10
September 2017
Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 39
$1.25 a day. Afolabi (2012) reported 61% Nigerian
are living in poverty as at 2010. Poverty is the
insufficiency of income to secure basic goods and
services due to lack of gainful jobs and other social
pressure, hence, crime. Crime is a breach in the
constitutional law by the subjects of a society. It
impedes the degree of peace, and general welfare.
Nigerias’ population and crime trend is
conspicuous. Her annual growth rate 1968-1978 was
at 2.5%-2.8% with 21 million population size
(Mabogunje, 1978). In 2006, her population size was
estimated to 140.5 million with an annual growth
rate of 3.2%. Her 168 million populations in 2012
ranked her the seventh most populous country in the
world. She is forecasted to hit 210 million by 2020
and could emerge as third world most populous
country by the year 2050 at a population growth of
3.22% (UN-HABITAT, 2012/2013, Nkwocha,
2014).
Unfortunately, increase in population growth rate is
said to have match with a progressive increase in
crime. Nigeria crime record in the 60s was 100 per
100,000 persons. The figure rose to 300 per 100,000
persons in the mid-70s. Criminal activities went
berserk in the 80s. This was led by high crime of
armed robbery and drug trafficking. The death
penalty was then instituted to serve as deterrence. A
total of 159, 069 cases were reported in 2003
showing a decreasing figure in crime when
compared with crime record of 241,916 in 1995
(Dambazua, 2007). This reducing crime tide in
Nigeria could have be a good news but it is presently
thwarted as armed robbery and kidnapping for
ransom are the most prevalent crime in Nigeria
(Freedom, 2014).
However, social malaise associated with
rapid population growth in cities does not isolate the
people from the city. The duos are inseparable.
“...the cities are people” (Bulelwa, 2012). Calabar
city is a focus as her population growth pace and
threatened city’s safety is a challenge to the
responsibility of Urban Planners as an advocate of
public safety and general welfare.
1.1 Statement of the Problem. Almost a decade
of sustained tourism development in Cross River
state, November, 2009 is remembered in the city for
the replacement of the hitherto dominant intra-city’s
commercial motorcycle with commercial buses, cars
and tricycles. This new mode of transportation is
presumed to have given rise to a new wave of crime
types and pattern within the city. A number of the
taxi-cab and “Keke” operators poses as law abiding
drivers during peak periods and late hours. They lure
unsuspecting passengers into their cabs and kidnap,
rob, rape, or murder them. This problem is further
worsened by heightened fear of crime and Militant
activities in the South-South and South-East.
Neighbouring states to Calabar City like Imo, Abia,
Anambra and Akwa Ibom are engulfed by Kidnap
activities (Freedom House, 2014). It is feared that
the bad influence of their new “lucrative” crime
wave of Kidnap could have spread into Calabar City.
Also, neighbourhood miscreants nicked named “area
boys” or “Eboi”, an organized masked costume
“men in black” indigenously named as “Tingkoriko”,
like their disbanded parent part “Agaba boys,” their
activities usually graduates from mere entertainment
groups into perpetrator of evil (Ikoh, Agba &
Nwosu, 2010). They get involved in violent clashes
among rival gangs which most time results to the
loss of life and properties in the city. The menace of
this gang of cultists was feared challenging to the
police by Koladipo (2013).
The anticipation of danger and fear to visit
certain areas of the city by strangers or for the huge
number of residents, the fear to return home very late
because of night marauders is inexpressible. The
uncertainty that looms at night-fall worries residents,
especially in Calabar South (Ikoh et al 2010; Eyo,
2011). Eyo lamented that, Calabar, once peaceful, is
now a heaven for criminals as she is fast becoming
one of the dreaded cities in the country.
High crime rate of kidnap for ransom in
recent times in Nigeria brought to light that criminals
are motivated by the pursuit of wealth making the
rich vulnerable (Freedom House, 2014). Also, the
inequality in household income distribution in
Calabar (Andrew, Elizabeth, & Akintoye, 2012)
heightens curious to unveil the influence of poverty
and other causation in the upsurge in urban crime.
The incidents of crimes and neighbourhood
insecurity have culminated to countless alarm and
events of mob actions “jungle justice” against
nabbed suspects (Uzondu, 2011). Heightened fear of
insecurity led vigilante groups and other members of
the public to have apprehended and lynched over
twenty (20) criminals in Calabar within three months
between December, 2013 and February, 2014
(Richard, 2014). Apart from addressing the
miscarried justice perpetrated, the improvement of
safety become paramount.
Calabar City exhibits population a high
growth rate of 2.5% to 3.0% with between 1991 and
2006 (NPC, 2006). Also, her tourist population trend
revealed an increase from 7,680 to 18,227 between
2002 and 2011. The hospitality industry recorded
62% variation growth between 1999 and 2011 due to
increase in number of tourist {Simon, Joseph &
Felix (2010); Eja, Agbor & Inyang (2013)}. The
Page 3 of 29
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at
http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/
ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 03 Issue 10
September 2017
Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 40
population composition of this new comer is treated
with mix-feeling described as adventurous and
migrant from conflicting norms. While new settlers
comprise people with business enterprises, majority
of them are presumed to be those without jobs. They
also varied in culture and psychology as the host.
The increasing number of tourists and their
undoubted robust purchasing power could have a
strong potential in influencing criminal tendencies
and safety implication to both the tourist and the
host.
Hence, gap in research on population
growth and law breaking activities, and the attendant
fear and insecurity in Calabar south, spur the need
for this investigation. The study addresses two
categories of street crimes based on Police crime
typology: Crime against humanity (rape, murder,
armed robbery, cultism, kidnapping, drug abuse);
crime against property (comprise arson, burglary,
Fraud and theft). A crime situational approach was
also employed and limited to ten (10)
neighbourhoods observed to exhibit alarm of
criminal activities while other neighbourhoods are
arbitrary chosen for comparative study purpose and
to adjudge the causes of crime spread within the city.
1.1.2 Aim and Objectives of the Study. The aim of
the research is to investigate crime activities in
relation to population growth in Calabar City.
This aim was achieved through the following
objectives;
1. To identify the types of crime per gender
frequency in the city;
2. to assess the spread of crime in the study area;
3. to identify the major factors responsible for crime
activities in the neighbourhoods;
4. to examines the implications of the spread of
crime on safety level of the city;
5. to establish the relationship between population
size and crime; and
6. suggest crime prevention measures in the area.
1.2 Theoretical Framework.
Environmental criminology is a perception
of professionals based on common interest in
criminal events. It is a computer based techniques for
explaining and predicting crime situations. It focuses
on geographical location of crime events at a point in
time. The three postulates of the theory are
Environment (population composition and
characteristics within time and space), Opportunity
(socio-physical design lapses) and Decision making
(Rationality, Routine activity and Pattern).
Crime is insufficient in itself without an offender.
Opportunity imply a worthy reward for a person’s
decision to turn to crime. He hoped that technology
would match with the trend of changes in the social
and physical environment (socio-economic
activities) through plan design and management.
And make crimes commission difficult, risky and
less rewarding because “opportunity makes the
thief” (Marcus & Roland 1998).
1.2.1 Concept of Population and Urban Spatial
Growth. Population size is obviously influenced by
population growth. It is a gradual process of changes
in a population composition of a political entity over
a period of time. Large numbers of demographic
inquiries are devoted to the analysis of population
changes in the society. Generally, the causal factors
of population growth are natural increase and
migration as buttressed by the Demographic
Transition model.
It states that “every country passes through different
stages of population development” (Jhingan, 2007).
According to Jhingan (2007), Blacker (1947) and
Frank Notestein (1945) explain these stages
respectively as determined by fertility and mortality
factors. Mortality (death) rate is a function of two
factors. They are the number of people in each age
grouping; and the life expectancy for those age
groupings.
This work summarizes their views into four
stages. Stage I: High fertility and mortality rate: It
implies birth rate and death rate are high causing low
natural increase and low total population. Stage 2 -
High fertility: This means that death rate is falling
while high natural increase is experienced. This is
positively implying population growth. Stage 3 -
Low mortality: This simply means low death rate
and high natural increase (population growth) is
experienced. Stage 4 - Low fertility and mortality: -
This is described by low natural increase and high
total population. These factors are summarised as
natural increase (the number of births minus the
number of deaths) and net migration.
According to Schnore (1975) cited in
Dawkins, 2003, migration is a demographic factor of
urbanization process. His opinion identified
migration as a contributor to population growth.
Soyombo, 2012, (cited in UN-Habitat, 2012/2013)
also opined that migration to cities is synonymous
with prosperity of cities where people congregate to
realize aspirations, fulfill needs; and dreams and turn
